Mr Modi doesn't get it

What happened in May 2014 was unprecedented for 2 generation of Indian voters, After 30 years India got a single party government. Many political pundits have written many a books on it & given their individual take. The most notable reasons cited by the media, Political and intellectual elite of this country can be summed up in the following 3 points..

a.      “Narendra Modi ran a fantastic campaign since Dec 2012..” : Rajdeep Sardesai

b.      “Rahul Gandhi is a non-serious politician & poor communicator..” :Public intellectuals

c.       “Corruption and policy paralysis of Dr MMS govt led to a situation wherein people were angry at the government and wanted to teach a lesson..” : Narendra Modi & his rich, elite, English speaking supporters

Look at the irony that I am qualifying his supporters as being “..rich, elite..” by adding English speaking and myself writing in the language. Well that’s because there is barely any Hindi keyboard for us to type. Also what separates me is over 9 decades of political experience that sits in my family and almost 100 years of cumulative legislative wisdom that I interact with or have lived with. Add that I speak strictly Hindi and other local dialects outside my work.

Let me begin by addressing Mr Modi ( I hope it reaches him) & his “..Vikas Vikas..” touting supporters who clap and jump everytime he vows to cleanse the country of Congress party, “..Congress mukta Bharat..”, for it’s  perceived ills of nepotism, dynasty cult and failures, The war is not between BJP and Congress or between Hindutvawadi and “ Sickular”, pejorative term for so called secular (read muslim appeasement) parties. The war in 2014 and now too, is between the frightened and what they fear. It is being fought by the people who perceive themselves as controlling nothing. They are besieging the people they perceive as controlling everything. We are in the midst of a Perception Insurrection, or, depending on how you perceive it, a Loser Mutiny.

True it was a revolt against the elite as many western thinkers have commented “..  revolt against the elites targets all manner of pre-eminence—political elites, business elites, media elites, institutional elites, and, kind reader, you. You're reading an article in a language which not many understand. This marks you as an elite..” in this hullabu of pundits going into coma due to shock of their predictions & resultant explanations, more to save their reputations, we missed the emotions that led us to May 2014. Most important, pre-eminence certain religions got under Congress led govt’s policy framing.

Politicians tend to forget nowadays that ‘development’ aka “..Bikas.. Bikas..” as Mr Modi keeps on harping, is a given. Right from Nitish to Akhilesh to Rahul Gandhi, all talk exactly the same language. As for corruption, lesser said the better. Corruption was not and still not a political issue in India, sadly though. Otherwise, lot of known, convicts would have been sent to political isololtion and not being feted as national leaders, defeating BJP candidates.

“If it's any comfort, people all over the world are saying, "We're sick of the elites. We're tired of the experts. To hell with the deep thinkers who think they know what we should have better than we do and who—while they're at it—are grabbing everything we've got."
Great Britain's political, business, and trade union leaders were opposed to Brexit. That is, the people who supported the Iraq war plus the people who caused the 2008 global financial crisis plus the people who nationalized the British automobile industry were all in unprecedented agreement on one issue. Voters felt they couldn't go wrong betting against this trifecta.

Everywhere in the world, the same phenomenon is repeating. Columbia, Brazil (where a leftist leader is being prosecuted despite giving free doles) to Australia (5-6 prime ministers) and recently Donald trump. In between Canadians did the unthinkable, they elected a clone of Justin bieber.

So Mr Modi, if you think giving doles and more doles or screaming “ ..I am tightening screws on the corrupt..” when you explain demonetisation or other complex rules for income taxation, you are just trying to become Indira Gandhi inciting class hatred. In India, as in America, its not wrong or bad to be rich, that category of demonisation of middle class/rich is exclusive preserve of communists but can you tell me how many seats they won in India? Well lowest ever,In single digits.
Now put yourself in context, take a moment for introspection and explain gain why do you think you won the election & with that majority and why do you think you can win again in 2019? Jut by giving more doles? An American writer said somewhere,

“Among poli sci savants, such contrariness at the ballot box is defined as "populism." But it's a definition that does nothing to define the phenomenon. Populism is just a name for an opinion common in most democracies: There exists a large herd of the clueless, and running circles around them is a small pack of wiseacres. Populist opinion has an effect even in political systems where the opinion of the populace doesn't matter. Vladimir Putin harnessed populist outrage at the kleptomaniac incompetents who took possession of Russia after perestroika. Xi Jinping's neo-Maoism makes use of populist anger at the all-the-tea-in-China scale of corruption among the Chinese elites.”

Not to be outdone, citizens of the Philippines gave themselves a dose of electoral homeopathy. Overwhelmed by violent lawbreaking, they elected a violent lawbreaker president. Rodrigo Duterte, former mayor of crime-plagued Davao City, is nicknamed "Duterte Harry". That explains why the Lalu, MSY or other Bahubalis won in india.
There are even populist aspects to Islamic terrorism. Fanatical interpretation of "jihad" is antielite. Islamic terrorists hate elites so much that they have suicide squads of elites who go around killing themselves.

Let me explain to you my view. We're culturally, spiritually and politically polarized, but not in a way that would startle an old-school history professor and jolt him awake from his nap in the faculty lounge. It’s not that someone is attacking somnath again.

Yet people are fearful, and they blame their fears on the leadership elite. This is because the leadership elite haven't done a very good job and Congress party has been ruling for 60 years out of 70 years so they get all the blame. Issue is emotional, spiritual and religious appeasement. Issue is temple control of government boards and closing down of Indic majority run schools under RTE wherein minority run schools are mushrooming and parents being fearful of children losing their cultural values in missionary run schools.

Demons have been unleashed in the Kerala, West Bengal or Rohingyas in jammu. They have a global pattern starting with Middle East. Your studied silence trying to be statesmanlike or proving that you are not “..Communal..” is simply putting you in league worse than Dr MMS. Atleast people knew that he is ineffectual and real decisions were made by Sonia Gandhi and her son. You Mr Modi, have no such luxury.

You know what? Your English speaking voters, whom you nowadays almost despise, spent their own money and time to create wave read what’s happening in the world around. They see how elites failed to address the problems that caused the demons to be unleashed in Kerala, WB, Kashmir or even Middle East & latest the European refugee crisis. It may come as shock to you but you too are elite now.

What do the elites care? The refugees aren't crowding the halls and jostling the elites in the corridors of the European parliament in Brussels. The refugees aren't building shantytowns on the tennis courts at the elites' country clubs.

Young radicalised muslim men commit assaults in public places, like the Cologne train station, on public occasions, like New Year's Eve. That's the public's problem. These things don't happen at the private parties elites give. That will happen in Saraswati Puja, Jammu or Kerala streets.

Sir, you elite fail and don't suffer any consequences from your failures. As it is with elite carelessness about violence on Tamil nadu, Kerala, Bengal street or firing across the LOC, so it is with elite carelessness about immigration of Rohingya and Bangladeshis. People don't have to march in lockstep anymore. People are becoming persons, not masses. Also Sir, people don't live largely in a world of net economic good. We live in our own little worlds, often practicing gross economics wherein spiritual wealth and ancestral beliefs make an important component.

On this aspect there is no difference between you and the grand old party of India, Indian national congress. In fact there is barely any perceptible difference between the government you lead and the one Dr MMS lead before you other than the absence of alrge scale corruption of Congress. Lalu,Mulayam, Jayalalita, Mayawati Mamta are proof enough of indian electorate’s apapthy for corruption.

It was the common Hindu who felt under siege with plethora of NGOs and laws who were questioning Lord Ram to Ram setu to besmirching Shiva, Sita, Durga. His temples are under govt control, school shut down under RTE and politicians wooing a religious group. What have you done to assuage? Remember we practice gross economics not net economics. This mala of Vikas Vikas will be not able to fill this deficit of spiritual and cultural bleed you continue to ignore. As I said, there is no difference in the language you speak from the language, Congress or assorted bunch of it' allied regional, venal and corrupt leadership speaks yet wind elections.

Therefore all of us idiots, we the people, who make up the populace, which leads to populism, are alarmed by our circumstances and are angry at our leadership elite for not being able to change them. Even more amazing is the complete ignorance of issues that elected you in first place. You have gone back on almost everything that was the election rhetoric i.e. Damaadji (Still enjoying life at home, not in jail), Pink revolution, Jayanti tax, UID (lol you have implemented it), Building military strength for deterance (lowest ever GDP to def budget ratio in independent india is in 2017), law to jail corrupt politicans within 1 year(promised on 15th Aug 2014)..

To soothe populist discontents politicians have only one piece of equipment—politics. In an attempt to get enough popular support to achieve or retain their elite status, politicians keep making the machinery of politics larger by making the state a nanny, mother and now grandmother. Free, more free and exclusively make deals with a group rather treat citizens as an individual unit. You are doing exactly what congress did, starting from Indira Gandhi.
 It is over when the fat lady sings. Politics has become an obese operatic performer, warbling so loudly that none of us bit players can be heard, and so fat that we're shoved into the orchestra pit.

Political power has grown in expense. One-third of the world's GDP is now spent by the politicians in governments. One out of every three things you make is grabbed by governments. Your jumla (Unfortunately I supplied that..” minimum government, maximum governance..” ) is let down by you only. If your cat has three kittens, one of them is a government agent.

Political power has grown in scope. Politics cast their net over every little aspect of life. Nothing is so private that it isn't tangled up in politics. From school, food, job, to Eashwara, all are at mercy of government. 

Good luck in 2019 Sir.

Identity theory & Sports management

Having managed one of the biggest sports brands & guiding quiet a few business to take advantage of sports associations, I think it’s time to understand why sports works for brand building in our context. More so because I was suggesting an isight yesterday and have continued to refine it over the night.

"Consumers believe that automobiles have continued to be our “freedom machines,” a means of both transportation and personal expression. Such long drives/races are a pinnacle of performance for man & machine. While they may not have the necessary skills or perseverance to participate but social causes and associated activities helps them with a fan identity, as with any group identity, being beneficial to the individual in that it may provide a sense of community thus triggering imitation syndrome.”

It’s time for me out down my thoughts on identities and how they build from strictly a sports/celebrity perspective & how it becomes important for brands to learn to distinguish between fan and spectator. We must understand the root of word ‘ Fan’. It comes from ‘Fanatic’.

Within social psychology, there are two dominant theory of identity – 

• Identity theory and 
• Social identity theory

Identity theory is a direct derivation of McCall and Simmons (1978) role-identity theory, which suggests that individuals will base their actions on how

• They like to see themselves 
• They like to be seen by others. 

Therefore, the role-identity requires two components, specifically, the role itself and the identity to be associated with that role. With this in mind, identity theory is rooted in the concept of roles and role-identities. 

Social identity theory, however, is based on Festinger’s (1954) social comparison theory, which suggests that individuals will strive to attach themselves to other individuals who are similar or slightly better. Social identity theory, therefore, focuses on the ways in which individuals perceive and categorize themselves, based on their social and personal identities. Rather than emphasizing role and role behaviors, social identity theory emphasizes group processes and inter-group relations. Both of these theories posit that, theoretically, the self is multifaceted, dynamic, and is generally responsible for mediating the relationship between social structures and individuals behaviour. However, the social identity theory has come to dominate the study of intergroup relations (Brown and Capozza, 2000), while identity theory focuses on the concept of role identities. 

Most sport fan researchers have focused exclusively on social identity theory; however, I argue that identity theory should be used as well. Within identity theory, the process of identity formation requires the individual to define him/herself in terms of the social relationship. In the creation of a fan identity, the individual will develop either a personal identity, a social identify, or both. Identity theory suggests that individuals have choices and it examines why they make the choices they do. The questions that arises and remain to be answered are, why, and how have they chosen a specific team? Furthermore, if identity is created through interaction, what types of interaction led the individual to make the choices he/she made? why individuals find sports to be enjoyable. These reasons include benefits associated with self esteem, an escape from everyday life, entertainment, economic factors, aesthetic or artistic qualities, group affiliation and family needs..

As for the differences between spectators & fans, the former will observe a sport and then forget about it, while fans will have more intensity and will devote parts of every day to the team or the sport itself. Fanship has also been defined as “an affiliation in which a great deal of emotional significance and value are derived from group membership”. Key here is word “group membership” so it makes sense to create communities of like minded people for us i.e. Superbike racing, Endurance racing. In that sense social media becomes very important.. remember its a community of like minded people.

Every activity that we plan must have an objective linking up to one grand idea. It must reinforce the brand relationship with subjects of adulation & create a favourable neighbourhood in consumer mind.

May be this is theory but has been basis of building brands in past i.e. Gillette Mach3, Smirnoff, Captain morgan, Chennai Super kings as I have seen

Decoding children of Saraswati, their thoughts & goodness!

A lot of indians are literally hypnotised, mesmerised or suckered by certain English terms. One of these is:Introspect/Introspection: Examine one's own thoughts or feelings. 

Now very few native English speakers or writers use this term, as it tends to have deep psychological or philosophical elements, but it is among the Indian press and pseudo-academics where it comes to the be used very often, as a term for shutting down any cogent discussion or rebuttal. For example Indians are often asked to 'introspect' which really translates to know your place, and don't get ideas above your station..

I had always looked Indians asking for introspection as a very Hindu thing which is summed up best by a couple of lines from the Bolywood song from "Guddi" - "Hum ko mann ki shakti dena"

The lines are (I copy paste)

दूसरों की जय से पहले, खुद को जय करे 

or

"Conquer yourself before trying to conquer others"

This requires introspection and Indians are stuck in a cycle of introspection about themselves like a program that loops on itself or a scratched record. But your point about asking others to introspect is valid because there is a naive (Indian) assumption that every human is grounded with the basics qualities of right and wrong as we see them (typically dharma values - truthfullness, sanctity of all life including prevention of cruelty to animals etc). There is a huge cognitive bias in imaging that "The other guy surely thinks like I do and if he introspects he will see the logic exactly the way I see it' 

This Indian tendency may well be related to several millennia of not having to face invasions from people who are brought up with ideas so different from our own that Indians stiil don't understand what hit them. Typically Abrahamics from outside India (or those who grow up in a non Indian environment) have no foundational training in the values of introspection. In fact in the religions Islam and Christianity, introspection has already been done for the aam Abdul and he already knows that those who don't agree with his world view are wrong. No introspection required. Nothing to look inside. Nothing to discover. It's all there in the book.

It reminds me a thing from past. Whenever any guests would come home my mom would ask me to adjust n compromise on my things so that the guests be given preference and be kept as much happy as possible. When we used to go to some relatives as guests, then also she would tell me to compromise and be least intrusive and demanding so that the host should not be troubled. As a kid, I would ask when the hell then I get preference???     

What does this tell you?? This is a tendency I have seen in many dharmik desi people. Ans I see this as a part of equation why we give a lot of importance to others i.e. outsiders and what they think, do or say.

Looking internally is a very Indian thing and it certainly results in some unique social consequences. Indians have been bringing up children to look internally for so many thousands of years that it is almost in our genes. It results in interesting social consequences - especially a phenomenon that has been remarked upon by many - that is areas of Indian cities, towns and villages that are secure and law abiding despite the near-absence of police.

Indian "inward thinking" has never been empty of aims - it prompts one to judge what is right and wrong for others based on what is right and wrong for oneself. One significant consequence of the "ideal" of searching within oneself is that the idea of forcing one's own beliefs on others, or even using violence to make a point on someone else except for self protection comes out looking as unnecessary because it is expected that the other guy too is looking inside himself and has found answers which can be discussed in debate.

This mental attitude is suicidal when faced with an ideology that does not require any thought. Thoughts have already been thunk by others and put down in a rule book. All you need to do is follow the rule book. One of the reasons why people find India to be anarchic is because no one sees "rule books" as the ultimate source of wisdom that trumps self examination and eternal truths of dharma. What Indians forget is that having a constitution and a "rule book" of laws is essential for self protection of a nation in a world where everyone has retreated into his own "nation". The Indian concept of "vasudaiva kutumbakam" has been chopped up into multiple cake-slices called "nation states" each of whom claim superiority, moral ascendancy and unique laws that exclude others.

Our philosophy has always put a lot of emphasize on understanding yourself to understand the universe, look inwards, conquer yourself etc etc. I have argued with many dharmik and libtards over this that how this is alright when everyone is doing this. But this necessarily introduces some kind of passivity in the system. When your neighbour is hell bent on killing you, introspection does not help. Precisely because of this, when we have Arjun complementing over killing his own relatives, we have Krishna to make him understand that it needs to be done. The way I see it is, we have a balanced system where if the first and foremost importance is given to the virtue of knowledge and wisdom, the second in line is Kshatriya Dharma which ensures that our way of life be preserved. Sadly we lost this one. As the Kshatriya dhrma was eroded, we became more and more vulnerable and ultimately total slaves under brishit rule.

Today this tendency to introspect has become a bane for us where we are contemplating everything we are doing but we do not question worse things from others because perhaps we think its none of our business. There are countless Hindus who vehemently oppose animal sacrifice to some local deity in some small community but tend to discount large scale sacrifice on Eid (And I am not even talking about libtards). It is truth that we are not raised to follow rule books and we are free to question anything and everything. Anyone can accept or discard any belief and still be a Hindu. Its not very difficult to find pakka religious, agnostic and atheist persons in same family, but all of them be happy Hindus. We are not raised to blindly follow something. And its one of the biggest strength of our civilization. But the passivity that comes with this is suicidal and to balance this Kshatriya dharma is defined. We need to revive the system in its entirety to make it work properly. 

Everytime some outsider comes and points a finger at us, we sit down and introspect what wrong we are doing. And the outsiders have exploited this to the fullest.

Have you ever noticed this in past - a couple of decades ago perhaps - if some outsider comes complaining about a kid, the kids parents would slap the kid first and ask why he did it rather than first trying to figure out if that outsider is even telling truth or not. In general more trust would be shown on outsider than one of your own family member

The lunacy of fixed fiscal deficit targets

Fiscal deficit is the excess of payments over receipts of the government. The quantum of fiscal deficit in budgets in India is fixed by law — the Fiscal Responsibility and Budget Management (FRBM) law enacted in 2004 by ABV government in order to balance the budget. The FRBM law has mandated that, in every budget from 2005, the fiscal deficit should keep coming down till the 3 per cent limit is achieved by budget 2009. But because of the global financial crisis in 2008, the UPA government deferred the target date, justifiably. But with the passage of FRBM law, the rate of fiscal deficit has come to play determinative role on budgets. If a budget moves on the road map to get to 3 per cent fiscal deficit, the finance minister is glorified. If not, he gets demonised.

I have been saying for long that fiscal expansion or contraction should be aligned with credit contraction or expansion respectively, in the economy. There is an inverse correlation between fiscal deficit (fiscal expansion) and bank credit (monetary expansion). That is, if credit growth falls, fiscal deficit may need to rise and if credit rises, fiscal deficit ought to fall — to ensure adequate money supply to the economy. I have been pointing out for some time that the current strategy of “loose monetary “ policy with tight fiscal policy (taxation/spend policy) is not going anywhere and will lead to perpetual stagnation by keeping asset prices high while limiting the means of middle class to buy them. 

Not many people even know how this limit of 3% came into existence? Is there any mathematical reason or logic behind it? Nope! It was just accepted as as number to align with EU target, which too was not an arithmetical deduction but  a negotiated one between various countries of EU. It made its advent in fiscal economics when European nations signed the famous treaty at Maastricht in the Netherlands to form the European Union (EU) as an economic and monetary union in 1992. The treaty named after the university city Maastricht was preparatory for the EU to evolve as a single currency — the Euro — zone from January 2002. A national currency is the product of a politically sovereign state in exercise of what is known as its “seignorage power”. Put in layman’s language, seignorage power is the authority to print nation’s currency or borrow from central bank. In monetary economics, this means creating money if the economy needs it.
It is critical for survival of Euro as currency because if the individual nations do not comply with the package, the Euro will not survive as a common currency. The package agreed stipulated that a member’s inflation should not exceed 1.5 per cent over the average of three member states with the lowest inflation; its public debt should not exceed 60 per cent of GDP, and importantly, its fiscal deficit should not exceed 3 per cent of its GDP. For Eurozone’s survival as one monetary unit, individual nations cannot have inflation, debt, interest or fiscal deficit beyond the agreed limit. This is how the magic figure of  ‘3’ made its way in the fiscal greatness parameter discourse.

But how did the Eurozone honour the deficit figure 3 per cent of GDP? Of the 12 members, 10 breached the 3 per cent limit during the twelve years, 1999 to 2011 — Greece, every year; Portugal,10 years; Italy, eight; France, seven; and the strongest one, Germany, five. Also the ceiling 60 per cent of debt to GDP, inherently linked to fiscal deficit, too was violated by most including France, Spain, Belgium, Austria, Italy, and Germany. The Maastricht treaty, including the 3 per cent rule, is observed more in breach.

How did this farce made it's way to India?

Our economic gurus of UPA devised a formula to deflect criticism of copying EU. It was first reported that the magic figure was recommended by a committee of the finance ministry, but no such recommendation seems available on record. Later, somewhere in 2006, long after FRBM law had adopted the 3 per cent limit, Dr S Rangarajan and Dr Subbarao explained the logic of the magic 3 per cent thus: out of the average financial savings of India, which was 13%, 5% would “go” to private sector cos and of the balance 8%, 2% would go to public sector undertakings — “leaving” 6% for central and state govts to be appropriated 50:50 between them to fund their deficits. That was how the 3% limit for the central govt in FRBM was rationalised. What if the pvt sector refuses to utilise 5% of the allocation or doesn't have the capacity to use As evident from the decreasing credit to GDP ratio? What if the pvt sector needs more? Is the basis for fiscal deficit not linked to the extent of credit demand by private corporates rather than by the amount of savings notionally allocable to them?

See what S Gurumurthy has to say about this madness of fiscal responsibility and needs..

"The logic of correlation between credit expansion and fiscal deficit has five sequential limbs.

One, money is the blood of economic growth.

Two, most money that fuels the economy is created by banks, not by government.

Three, banks and financial institutions fund business and others, and it is that credit money which drives the economy.

Four, if, for whatever reason including lack of business confidence, the bank credit to the economy does not adequately grow, like it did not in the last few years, economic growth will suffer for want of adequate money.

Five, that is when the Budget needs to step in, to pump money into the economy by incurring deficit (spending more than the income), and, for the purpose, borrow the money lying with banks or even by printing more money, if that is needed.

The fifth limb ensures that growth does not decelerate for want of enough money circulating in the economy. Otherwise, it will. The FRBM law has ignored the fourth and fifth limbs of the logic and fixed the 3 per cent fiscal deficit as inviolable. The time has come to uncover how far its intents match with the reality and how rational its fixation with the 3 per cent limit is. The working of the FRBM law, particularly in the last few years, needs a reality check." 

It seems that for their own very selfish reasons a Group of economist now being promoted by Bloomberg Group called “Modern Theorists” (?) have started calling for higher fiscal deficit limit.

Eventually loose monetary policy + loose fiscal policy will convert the present stagnation to stag-inflation (stagflation).

" Money supply growth had averaged 17.8 per cent between 2006-7 to 2010-11. It began declining later. It declined from an average growth of 16.5 per cent in the two years ending 2010-11 to an average growth of 13.5 per cent in the three years ending 2013-14. In 2014-15 its growth had come down to 11.5 per cent — a fall in growth of 45 per cent as compared to 2010-11. The money supply growth is less than the growth of nominal GDP for 2014-15. The year-on-year growth in bank credit too more than halved from 16.7 per cent in 2009-10 to less than 8 per cent in 2015-16. As a proportion of the growth of nominal GDP too bank credit growth has fallen. The credit growth, which had equalled the growth of nominal GDP in 2010-11, almost halved in 2014-15. The credit expansion as related to GDP too fell to 5.6 per cent in 2014-15 and to 4.4 per cent in the nine months of 2015-16, from 11 per cent in 2009-10. This establishes that, in the last six years, both money supply growth and credit expansion have halved absolutely and in relation to GDP growth. Even the combined fiscal deficit (fiscal expansion) and credit growth (monetary expansion) as a percentage of GDP has halved from 17.4 per cent in 2009-10 to 8.8 per cent, which is less than nominal GDP growth. Three things are obvious. Money supply growth has reduced. Credit expansion has fallen. And even fiscal deficit and credit growth put together have declined, all pointing to the growing economy being starved of the needed money needed, in which the FRBM Act has also lent its hand. "

We should have reasonably loose fiscal policy but tight/controlled monetary policy. The artificial limit of 3% GDP for fiscal deficit has to be replaced by dynamic limit based on :-

1. Rate of GDP Growth
2. Velocity of money , CRR/SLR Ratio, Monetary policy etc
3. Amount of Budget invested in productive assets
4. Reasons of inflation whether it is cost push or due to excess moeny in the system

For India I think that Prime Interest Rate hovering around 10% should be around 8% while Fiscal deficit limit should be 5% with massive Govt Investment in Infrastructure and seed money for high tech industries. 

Quotes from S Gurumuthy's article in The Hindu

http://www.thehindu.com/opinion/lead/frbm-acts-3-limit-on-fiscal-deficit-hinting-at-paradigm-shift/article8320964.ece

नयी घास के नए फर्श पर नए पाँव इठलाएंगे : Phantom pains

वह: आपने लिखना छोड़ दिया, लोगों से मिलना छोड़ दिया, गुज़ार सकेंगे इतनी बेमतलब की ज़िन्दगी?

कवि : गुज़ार सकेंगे क्या, गुज़ार रहा हूँ और भरोसा कीजिये इतनी बेमतलब की भी नहीं है ये ज़िन्दगी!
वह : हमने सुना है कि हर कवि की ज़िन्दगी मैं कोई न कोई लड़की होती है जिसके कारण वह कविता शुरू करता है ..
कवि : या छोड़ देता है ..आपने सुना है या ये आपकी अपनी राय है ..?
वह : आपने जवाब नहीं दिया
कवि : मैंने दे दिया

Heard people talking about phantom pains when they loose a limb. Even though I empathised with their loss but could never bring myself to understand their pain, Now I do having experienced loss.

You believe that the limb is still there & it requires a phenomenal mental adjustment to let go, accept & make peace with what you are at that point. Phantom pain in arms, legs must be unbearable for sure. what about gut & loss of trust, belief? What about loss of capability to love? People can't even understand or see your pain while u grimace in agony at own inability to trust/love anymore..

I thought of you with love today

but that is nothing new

I thought of you yesterday too.

Shall summer's warm brilliant sun bring new light,

And free my anguished mind of its terrible plight?

Will its gentle breezes chase grief's dark clouds away,
And show me a clear path towards a better day?

can hear immortal voice of Mukesh..

.. मैं जानता हूँ कि तू गैर है मगर यूँ ही ...

Time to sleep

Economics: Coffee, Scarcity, property & relationship

The other day I was having coffee with a new friend, a retired businessman.. I mentioned I had studied economics for many years, especially Austrian economics & remained student.

Like so many people, he said, “I really don't understand economics and always have been confused by it.”

To which I surprised him with, “Of course you understand economics; it is the thought process you use every day to deal with three things: scarcity, property, and relationships.”

His eyes got big and he said, “Whoa! Say that again.”

“OK,” I said, “Everything in human life is organized around how we make decisions about three things: scarcity, property, and relationships.

“First let’s talk about scarcity which you’ve known about all of your life — you notice when something is missing or about to be missing; it is how you decide when it’s time go to the grocery store, do your laundry or whether you should drive your car faster so not to be late for an appointment.

“Every human being is an expert in the decision process of scarcity. It is something we all naturally do whenever we act and choose — which, by the way, we are doing all the time, every day, all day long.”

I smiled, “I could go on and on. You want more?”

“Sure,” he smiled back.

“All humans make action and choice decisions that automatically weigh the following factors. Knowledge: what do we know? Risk and uncertainty: what is our estimate of the risk we can foresee? What do we not know? Time and priority: when do I want or need this? And, how important is this to me right now in relation to other options? Value: what am I willing to give up to have this thing right now?

“This is the personal way you understand economics; it’s the decision process that every human being goes through every time they act and choose, even if it is only for me, alone.

“But there is another important way you already understand economics, which is how we interact with others. That is why I mentioned property and relationships because here is where the decision process I outlined above takes into account other people.

“Economics is also about how we decide how we will think about — and therefore organize — our property and our relationships.”

After a long pause my new friend then said, “Wait a minute. You haven’t talked about money. Even I know that economics is the study of money.”

To which I said, “The study of money and monetary exchange is the most applied use of economic theory. And this is to be expected.

“Why? Because of property.

“You probably already know that money is a medium of exchange. But what are we exchanging? We are exchanging property, your property for my property.

“It is most valuable to think that there are two conversations happening during every monetary — or property — exchange.

“The first conversation is the one I am having with myself; when I give $3 for this fancy cup of coffee I am saying, “I value that coffee more than the $3 in my pocket.”

“The second conversation is the one the café owner is having with himself. He is saying, “I value your $3 more than the coffee I have for sale.”

“Money is the handiest form of property so I don’t have to try to exchange a fish or a chicken for a cup of coffee, for example.”

I continued, “the real use of economics is in the conversation of how we organize ourselves in groups. Do we peacefully respect each other’s property? Do we peacefully cooperate with a shared sense of peaceful-values or is it that fearful-values are forced on us by some Single Dictator, as in a single person, or a Group Dictator, which is otherwise called democracy, by the way.”

At this point my new friend was squirming and said, “So, really economics is based on politics.”

I said, “Actually, it’s the other way around. If you like, I can send to you a great little essay written in 1850 that clarifies this. The writer’s name is Bastiat and he explains that economic architectures precede political architectures.

“In other words, if you look at politics as simply an argument of how we should organize ourselves, then it becomes obvious that it really boils down to how we know, or don’t know, what property is and how we should deal with it as we relate to each other in life and living.

“This is what I was referring to when I said that economics is also about relationships. The connection between economics and politics is how we organize our relationships and whether our ‘shared values’ assume we can have (and want to have) a society based more on peaceful cooperation — or not.”

As all conversations go, it became apparent that it was time to wrap this up, so I said, “Well, there you go. I have been studying this for a long time. If you would like to learn more I can direct you to learn about these things in a step-by-step way.”

To my surprise, he said, “No, let’s continue. This is very interesting. But one thing bothers me. Are you also saying that humans don’t need rules and laws and that our so-called ‘self interests’ are enough to keep us humans interacting in a more peaceful way? The news is too full of the horrors of humanity to swallow that one.”

I replied, “Well, it is true that the media is mostly reporting bad news. And there are definitely places and times throughout the world where the balance was and is greater violence of man against man.

“But it is also true that this exists against a backdrop of a pretty darn peaceful world overall. On any average day, you are more likely to end the day peacefully in bed than being the victim of some violent or unfortunate occurrence.

“There are many, many examples of shared peaceful values that we — the world over — rely on in our daily life, that show this to be true. My favorite is the freeway. Here we move along at speeds that easily can kill us and yet we all — mostly and most of the time — peacefully cooperate.

“But let’s talk next time about whether we need to organize ourselves around an assumption that the only way people will peacefully cooperate is via some agency being given the exclusive use of force or whether there are other ways that we can both have rules, laws, and remedies and — at the same time — a higher order of peace, prosperity, and freedom.

“Because there is a way.”

Conversations: Michael J. McKay

Internet & the emerging banking crisis

With a $10 billion+ sale on single's day for Alibaba.com & even Flipkart clocking a billion $ sale on mega sale days, which geniuses are building malls? Have no utility beyond movies & restaurants. The day Chinese became the factory of world, including clothing along with digitalisation of western populace, malls were doomed. Who wants to pay inflated prices for brands when poor IP law implementation allows same Chinese manufacturer to churn out clones for 1/5th price to consumers.

If you take the point that public investment in infra follows GDP boom and not vice versa, then it's bad news for all the ghost towns and public infra like airports that China has built up. They will not spur economic growth and unless there is some other form of stimulus that spurs growth then this infrastructure will be sitting there for a long time before it gets utilised. One example that I keep on citing for India is Noida toll road. It started in 2002 ( If i remember correctly) has not turned operationally profitable till date. 

Similar case can be built for Bandra-Worli Sea link. There are simply not enough car commuters to pay fee & thus enabling return on investment for this project.

The problem with public infrastructure is very similar to your car. Its starts to depreciate in value from Day 1. Since all of this infra was built with public money, the loans are not being serviced or there is an increased interest component, which means there's no money for the upkeep of the infra.

Politicians often prefer dams, interstate highways and bullet trains that make the news, critics add, rather than schools, hospitals and smaller projects that may be more economically productive.

India is now pushing high-speed rail between urban centres,Which may have returns but putting 4 lane roads doesn’t do much for villagers. They really need a one-lane road only that can be maintained & livelihood sustained. Economics is really simple. If you have no money and you want to build a house, pretending that you do have money still won't allow you to build a house. That's because you need actual capital to buy material and labor. Pretend money won't work otherwise every third world will get first world infrastructure just by pretending. 

Now you can pretend and fool an external money source but that won't last long because monied people and nations don't get to be rich by being stupid. Look at Argentina. No one lends to them anymore. Now you can look around & see how struggling malls, unsold housing stock & then look at bank balance sheets with roughly 11lac crores as CDR & NPA. This is almost 25% of total lending amount of India's banking system.

Infact the success of ecommerce in china indicates mega malls of unsustainable size might struggle even more in future. malls can only serve a certain radius be it 50km or 100km. ecommerce can serve the whole country from a dozen warehouses in low cost locations but near highways/airports/railways for logistics.

The internet has become a critical element of China’s economic progress in the past five years, accounting for seven per cent of the world’s second largest economy’s gross domestic product (GDP) in 2014, a percentage point higher than the US, state-run Global Times reported, citing a report issued by China Internet Network Information Centre (CNNIC).

China has exceeded the US to become the world’s largest online retail market, it said as the online retail transactions reached 2.79 billion yuan (USD 439 million) in 2014, one of the key economic achievements of China’s Internet development during the 12th Five-Year Plan period (2011-15).

However, according to US journal Statista, US online sales last years accounted to about USD 290 billion.

In 2014, the number of online shoppers climbed to 361 million, representing 55.7 per cent of the nation’s shoppers.

Online shopping represents 20 per cent of all consumer demand, the report said. For the first time mobile phones have become the most commonly-used platform to access the internet, followed by computers. Some 594 million people in China can access to the Internet through mobile phones. In India the same number is around 350 million & almost 65% access through mobile phones.

And when it's pointed out that the total e-commerce $ value in China was just 8.3 per cent in 2013 and projected to be just 12 per cent in 2015, you turn that around to see how US/Indian/Chinese malls are doing bad!! 

Are baba or shall I say Alibaba!! 

If Love is the answer, could you please rephrase the question?

Ever since I have been writing nothing has fascinated me more than human relationships & why not? relationships based on love make for an interesting read even though why love happens itself has been dissected thoroughly by medical sciences. Brain must be most fantastic organ of all.. works 24X7 from the time you are born till you fall in love..

La Rochefoucauld said "True love is like seeing ghosts we all talk about it, but few of us have ever seen one" & at this ripe old age 40, I do concur. Being a behaviour addict, i just see so many of known/unknown people in agony, rarely happy for a longer duration. We are remnants of an age wherein we got into marriage or relationship with not much expectations except for companionship & raising a family together. Times have indeed changed!

I see lot of young women who complaint of not being able to find love but constantly going out with the same man who more often than not, picks them from office/home and tabs too. Gives gifts on birthdays, throws parties but is kept hanging like a cur waiting for something sweet while 'They' are looking for someone to love. Lot of man are no different in their behaviour. 

Jack Nicholson once said, “Almost everybody's happy to be a fool for love."

It's highly doubtful that he had evolutionary psychology on his mind when he made this statement, but nonetheless he tapped into a fundamental human foible: When it comes to dating, mating, and relationships, it can be hard for us to see straight. While we may have few 100 thousand years between our forbearers (primitive men) & us, we continue to exhibit same behaviour with regards to dating,mating & seeking. 

This shows evolution of man.It also means that our sages were indeed truthful & brave to write, mention the trials and tribulation as a society that we went through. they have recorded the 'Yug Dharma' as it changed over the years.Greatest of the warriors & one of the most learned mind 'Pitamaha Bhishma' said the following in 'Shanti parva' .. dialogues between him and Dharmaraj Yudhsthir

न चैषां मैथुनो धर्मो बभूव भरतर्षभ
संकल्पादेवैतेषां अपत्यं उपपद्यते - 37

ततः त्रेतायुगेकाले संस्पर्शात् जायते प्रजान
ह्य भूः मैथुनो धर्मस्तेषां अपि जनाधिप - 38

द्वापरे मैथुनो धर्म प्रजानां भवन्नृपःतथा
कलियुगे राजन द्वन्द्व मापेदिरे जनाः - 39

"In satya yuga, intercourse happened as desire arose in minds of fertile men and women. There were no words for mother, father, sibling etc. In Treta Yuga, when men and women touched each other and welcomed the touch, dharma allowed them to copulate for time-being. (this is stage where concept of "favourite" mate started emerging). IN Dwapara Yuga, Men and women started cohabiting as couples but not as stable and committed pair-bonding couples. In Kali Yuga, the stable pair-bonding (what we refer to as institution of marriage) emerged."

Why is making accurate assessments so fraught with difficulty in todays romantic contexts? From an evolutionary perspective, these biases helped our ancestors achieve reproductive success in a prehistoric environment in which that was difficult to do. In a thinly populated world, there were far fewer mating opportunities in a relatively short lifetime. They were also under great threat from infectious diseases and starvation.

Our memories have stories when there were no "names" for relations. Only relation was that between a fertile man and woman. In fact here have been references to The references of free cohabitation, sibling cohabitation, offering one's "stri (woman)" to friend OR guest" (Kindly note that the word "patni" had not evolved), references towards intercourse with alive and dead animals, intercourse with wife of one's guru, cohabitation with multiple males, temporary cohabitation, contract marriage all these are mentioned in Puranas & is the history of Indic people."You can also add Shiva's Aasakti on Mohini & the chase. Subsequently the birth of Harihara.

I return to the fundamental question, what is love and where are the origins of this word? Did we actually confuse this word with what we call " आशक्ति " or lust ? 

In other words, there's a mismatch between our ancient genes and our modern lives—in our diet, and in the romantic realm. Here are four common biases when it comes to love: See what an award winning psychologist Dr Mehta had to say about man women relationships in modern times...

1. We pay too much attention to looks. According to research, physical attractiveness in the romantic realm is an advertisement of health and fitness. In the ancient world, infectious diseases were far more prevalent than they are today. Muscular men with chiseled features, and women with an optimal waist-to-hip ratio were advertisements that their offspring stood a greater chance of surviving and reproducing. Studies show that we still have an attentional bias for beauty.
2. " Women underestimate commitment. Pregnancy and lactation are costly for women, which likely encouraged their preference for mates who demonstrate clear signs of long-term commitment and the provision of resources during pregnancy and breastfeeding. Indeed, research shows that women tend to underestimate the level of commitment on the part of men. After all, it would be more costly for a woman to have sex with a man who will love her and leave her than to underestimate a man's interest and wait until a more committed partner comes along. This may explain why some women may debate for stretches of time whether the number of calls, texts, emails, and dates initiated by a suitor add up to real signs of interest and a possible long-term relationship."
3. Men overperceive sexual interest. Like their counterparts in the animal kingdom, human males invest less in reproduction and can potentially produce far more offspring in his lifetime than women. Thus it is to their reproductive benefit to have a variety of mating partners, which likely encouraged a keener ability to pick up on signals of interest on the part of women. After all, there's more to lose in underestimating sexual interest and missing out on a sexual opportunity than there is in overestimating sexual interest and losing time pursuing a woman who isn't interested. Research consistently shows that men are biased toward overestimating the degree to which a woman may be interested in him. Perhaps this explains why some guys come on too strong, or don't give up when it seems it's time.
4. We all get jealous way too easily. The green-eyed monster may not be a flattering human emotion, but has served a useful function over the course of human evolution. In women, jealousy serves to prevent their mates from providing resources for other female rivals. For men, jealousy prevents cuckoldry, i.e., investing in genetically unrelated children. The consequences for both genders would be, evolutionarily speaking, costly. Yet today, both resources and paternity certainty can be more easily accessed, and thus jealous responses can unfortunately misfire." 

Pitamah Bhishma also said that 'Kama' is the जननी (mother) of all 'purushaasrtha'.. Let me go back to the root of it all. The root is 'Sanatan' . the word itself can be broken down to Sat -anant or as some bifurcate it as, Sat + Aa + Tan.The meaning is, 'Pursuit since Sat' . Wherin Sat can be construed as Satyug or Truth. So the continuity of civilization is the 'Dharma'

Between all this, where is love? what were you saying, can you repeat that love thing?