Sunday, June 18, 2017

Pak nukes, American real-politik & usage of multinational platforms to harm India

If US did 'perfectly fine looking after her own interests' (which by the way is how statecraft works and there is nothing wrong with that), then why are we blaming China alone for its 'maliciously intended nukes'? By the same token, China has also done 'perfectly fine looking after her own interests', hasn't it?

To me this line of argument is an urge to protect the US misdeeds but blame others. The evidence is so loaded against the US for this line of illogic to succeed. Of course, India has to handle its problems itself. But, to absolve the US of its commissions & omissions is completely wrong. It practised double standards against India and India alone, while positively helping India's enemy. As an Indian, I have, therefore, got every right to expose that and blame it.

The NSG (Nuclear Suppliers Group or the "London Club" as it is popularly known) which is an outgrowth of the Zangger Committee agreement of August 1974 and the MTCR (Missile Technology Control Regime) which have all been made even more comprehensive through "Energy" and "Wassenaar" protocols (which in c. 1992 banned dual-use technologies even when these were not meant for non-nuclear applications), were specifically meant for India and have affected India's civilian nuclear and space programmes significantly. By c. 1979, the US had restricted severely the export of high-technology and dual-use items to India (through its Export Administration Act, 1979). The ''Entry into Force' (EIF) clause in CTBT was introduced at the instigation of the US targetting India solely, though it was ostensibly meant for the three 'threshold states' - India, Pakistan & Israel. It was the EIF that prompted India to test its weapons in May 1998 before the window closed in September 1999.

After the May, 1989 successful test of Agni-I missile, MTCR rules were tightened against Indian entities and hundreds of items were banned from export to India necessitating India to embark on a massive programme of self-reliance to overcome the denial regime. The Western nations, led by the US, practised a ‘nuclear apartheid’ against India for over four decades. The Indian cryogenic engine programme was sought to be sabotaged through the ruse of a spy-scandal for which eminent engineers suffered for their entire life (of course, partly GoI has to be also blamed for this, which is quite another matter).

While all this was going on against India, what did the US do for furthering the acquisition of nuclear weapons by Pakistan? It passed the Pressler Amendment which was drafted in Islamabad with Pakistani inputs regarding the wordings and clauses and the American Presidents interpreted it deliberately differently to undermine the 'exalted American goals' of nuclear non-proliferation.

In hindsight now and in the context of revelations, the pieces of the jigsaw puzzle fall into place. In an interview in January, 1987 with India’s veteran journalist and ex-diplomat, Kuldip Nayar, A.Q. Khan admitted that Pakistan had the bomb and the CIA was aware of that. In an interview with the Washington Post on February 7, 1992, Pakistan’s Foreign Secretary, Shaharyar Khan admitted that Pakistan had components to make ‘at least one bomb’ and he was revealing the information to bridge the ‘credibility gap’. On the same day, while speaking in the UN, he said that ‘Pakistan possessed the nuclear weapon capability even in 1989’. The mention of the year 1989 was significant as the US had left the Af-Pak region by that time. The attempt by Shahryar Khan was obviously to bail out the US from any disconcerting questions.

Gen. Zia’s support for the US campaign in the Afghan jihad against the Soviets was predicated on two conditions, one, the United States should not raise any queries on Pakistan's nuclear programme and two, there should be no pressure or calls for democratization. On December 26, 1979, Brzezinski told Pres. Jimmy Carter “This will require a review of our policy toward Pakistan, more guarantees to it, and, alas, a decision that our security policy toward Pakistan cannot be dictated by our nonproliferation policy.”

The US colluded with Turkey in allowing export of sensitive items to Pakistan even as it continued to issue demarchés to that country and even as Turkey protested these demarchés citing its weak export laws. So was the then West Germany. Not only did sensitive parts and machinery go to Pakistan, but also German scientists went to that country to train Pakistanis. So have been Dutch companies and Dutch friends of AQ Khan. The US pressurized Holland to release the thief AQ Khan twice (1975 & 1986) from any prosecution and punishment even after he was caught red handed by the Dutch police. No less than the Prime Minister of Holland, Rudd Lubbers, has admitted to this openly. Was the CIA ‘following' A.Q.Khan for three long decades to ferret out more information about AQ Khan’s clandestine work and proliferation (an usual spy operation tactic) without anything to show?

Pakistani operatives caught red-handed within the US for exporting nuclear-related components and devices were treated with kid gloves and also released without prosecution. The US thus violated its own Solarz Amendment of 1985 which demands that the US cutoff all military and economic aid to purportedly non-nuclear nations that illegally export or attempt to export nuclear-related materials from the US. In view of these actions, one must only conclude that the US ensured that Germany also did not act against the violators of its export rules because there is no other explanation for the German silence.

The US also forced the Swiss government to destroy vital evidences of nuclear proliferation by a Swiss family which was part of Dr.A.Q.Khan’s network. By mid-2008, it turned out that the what the Swiss government destroyed was an advanced design for miniaturized nuclear weapon that A.Q.Khan had given. Prior to that, Mr. Tinner, the head of that Swiss family, had worked with Dr. A.Q. Khan for three decades knowing fully well the clandestine nuclear weapons programme of not only Pakistan but also Libya and Iran. As an agent of the CIA, God alone knows when he was recruited but it certainly was only when centrifuge parts were shipped by A.Q.Khan to Libya that the alarm bells were set ringing by the US. Until then, the US did not intervene in the activities of the Tinners when they were helping with the centrifuge programme at Kahuta. In order to cover its tracks, the US forced the Swiss government to destroy all documents and prevent prosecution of the Tinners by all means.

Even as late as c. 2003, the US President George W Bush thought it fit not to apply sanctions on Pakistani entities exporting nuclear technology to North Korea even after Pakistan was implicated. The US Government simply said that ". . . cooperation between the two was a thing of the past". The US Government exhibited a similar attitude to bail out its ally Pakistan in its more dangerous liaisons of nuclear proliferation to other states, especially rogue states, when the State Department of the US briefed other friendly governments with information contrary to what its own intelligence agencies were reporting about the Pakistani-Libyan deal which in fact went back to Z.A.Bhutto’s days. The US said that North Korea sent Uranium Hexafluoride to Libya while it was Pakistan that re-exported this gas to Libya.

Even as the CIA confirmed the supply of M-9 & M-11 missiles to Pakistan by PRC (in c. 1991), the White House refused to take note. The F-16s that were sold to Pakistan came with a rider that they would not be modified to deliver nuclear weapons. But, Pakistan did indeed modify them and the US has since then given three more tranches of F-16s with the same farcical condition. The DoD even lied to the Congress (or played with words to be more charitable) when queried about such Pakistani modifications, as the US President himself did by claiming Pakistan did not 'possess' a nuclear weapon.

There are many instances of such US collusion, collaboration, acquiescence in making Pakistan get its nuclear weapons and delivery systems. The pattern of US behaviour is consistent where it not only exported dual-use material to Pakistan and violated its own laws with impunity, but also forced its allies to do so. The US has justified Pakistan's security paranoia against India for this.

In one way, I would put the US collusion as more dangerous from an Indian perspective than the Chinese assistance because the former allowed the Uranium enrichment process to produce HEU, to come to fruition (the Chinese didn't have this to perfection at that time) by not only allowing the stolen blueprints from Holland to be used without punitive action but also helping Pakistan get all critical items, machinery and components to make that process a success. This is what that has been threatening us now. Pu-based weapons are a more recent phenomenon.

India may have failed to do many things but that doesn't absolve the US of the following:

  • Its nuclear proliferation both directly & indirectly to Pakistan
  • Its attempts at strangulation of genuine Indian efforts in every sphere of activity, including nuclear, until things changed somewhat after 9/11
  • Attempts to wean away Kashmir & keep the pot boiling
It is said that Chester Bowles and Adalai Stevenson met the Sheikh and encouraged him for an independent Kashmir. As such the U S A wanted to make the State of Jammu & Kashmir an Independent Country with Sheikh Abdullah as its Head! Thus the USA would make Abdullah’s J & K a “Dependency” of the United States. As such IMO the USA will continue to have Pakistan and India at Loggerheads.

I do understand perfectly that every country would act in its sole interests and the US did exactly the same. But, that does not acquit it of its criminal intent and actions against Indian interest regardless of whether India should have independently acted against Pakistan or not.