Few days back, I read an article by Biju Dominic, ' Wiping out terrorism calls for a radically different approach'. I have respected Biju for a long long time, infact from the time in 2005 when he was leading the account from DDB side and I was brand manager at Philips. Coming from a family with many generation of military & political history, I have seen these debates at close quarters for long... as far as 1982-83. Add to it, I have a deep and abiding interest in most subjects military and human behaviour related.
Terrorist the word itself, carries the message they want to deliver, terrorise the populace in order to mould their opinion to suit group's political, religious or economic agenda through covert and overt use of Violence.
Since America is the foremost military power with a global reach and agenda, it is also at the forefront of military, social doctrines to contain the 4th generation of hybrid warfare. Like any other democracy it is also constrained in its response in accordance to its domestic laws. Add to it the emotional, knee jerk reactions due to virtue signalling by its liberal, intellectual class.
India, due it its geographic location and surrounded by hostile states with religious and geopolitical pecking order motivations (Pakistan/BD and China, UK/US) is another frontline states for terror with a large Muslim population (largely peaceful) but fished in by western neighbour, calling for decimation of a Kafir state. People may not know but the motto of Pakistan army is 'Jihad-fi-sabilliah' - Jihad in the way of Allah. I don't want to get into the details of partition and Pakistan being "New Medina". Add to it, we have many faultiness of language, religion & many grievances, ready to be stoked.
3rd frontline state is Israel, surrounded by huge, hostile (driven by religious motivation) neighbours whose avowed goal is destruction of Jewish people. There is lot to learn from Isarel on anti-terror and there is lot to learn from India on anti-terror.
At the very beginning, let me say Terror can only be defeated with greater terror. A jaw for a tooth and an eye, hand and leg for an eye. It creates deterrence and targeting the key stakeholders (leadership) is the right strategy.. domino theory.. One domino falls the whole pack does. I have repeated ad nauseam that we need to create deterrence.. target families and friends of generals anywhere in the world.
Make them fee fear of personal loss.. bring their skin in the game. Apart from head of state, all must be on table.
The American and Indian counterterrorism debate has largely ignored Israeli calculus. Washington is generally averse to learning from others, and Israel’s security establishment, until recently, was reticent about revealing its thinking. That changed last August when, for the first time in the IDF’s history, Chief of General Staff Lt. Gen. Gadi Eizenkot published an unclassified version of the IDF defense doctrine. But because the document appeared only in Hebrew, it has remained largely unknown in the American strategic community. To make it accessible, Harvard Kennedy School’s Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs recently posted an English translation of the document.
Indian establishment has only upped its collaboration and for the very first time started implementing the learning i.e. Uri, BawalKot now post Pulwama. So people who say we must make peace know nothing about war. It’s only war, ability to bring unprecedented violence on enemy that ensures peace. And war must continue till one of the participants is exhausted and spent in will and resources. War may not be the beautiful but it ensures beauty to thrive.. Our whole history has been wars with some peace in between.
The “IDF Strategy” document discusses in detail how to deter terrorist groups, specifically Hezbollah and Hamas. In the U.S. policy lexicon, Hezbollah and Hamas are labeled “terrorists.” The IDF calls them “substate organizations.” Substate actors have headquarters, hold territory and govern populations. Thus they present targets of value, making them vulnerable, like states, to a combination of “general deterrence” and “specific deterrence.” General deterrence is achieved by maintaining overwhelming military superiority and earning a reputation like that of the Godfather. The Godfather “takes everything personal.” As his consigliere observed, “If a bolt of lightning hit a friend of his the old man would take it personal. . . . Accidents don’t happen to people who take accidents as a personal insult.” In Eizenkot’s words, Israel must be seen as “an unpredictable enemy that can react in a very severe way.” This something that Indian state and IA has not done till now as our responses have been very measured and lot of times sub-par courtesy optics and politics.
Specific deterrence is tailored to each enemy and focuses on particular actions. It requires “an ongoing analysis of the enemy’s characteristics, considerations, capabilities, identity, and decision making processes.” Israel seeks to influence the “calculations” of its enemies directly by persuading them of “the futility of continuing to fight” and reminding them of the “outcome of previous confrontations.” This is come thing Indian army has only started to say recently when Lt Gen Dhillon stated that anyone who picks a gun will be killed and he appealed to the mothers of these youth to put some sense into their wards.
Pulibius Syrus on stone pelting & suicide bombing: Pardon one offence and you encourage the commission of many. Here is where we have had a massive failure with both of the regional parties undoing each other in relating stone pelters and pushing the forces to ignore these.. even though most gunweilders in Cashmere have graduated through stone pelting. A stone a 90-100KM/hr is a projectile that breaks the skull and soldiers are succumbing to it, severely demoralising the morale.
The IDF constantly worries about whether its deterrent is sufficiently strong. It works daily to ensure that it meets each and every condition required for success. Red lines are clearly, publicly and repeatedly announced by top Israeli officials not only in Hebrew, but also in Arabic. Israel’s capability to enforce these red lines is demonstrated by “building a force that is partially visible to the enemy.” Credibility is enhanced by taking “limited offensive actions to signal that the ‘rules of the game’ have been broken.” And it is careful to withhold punishment otherwise. (Indeed, Israeli policymakers have occasionally chosen not only to avoid punishment but to reward good behavior, for example, in supporting the reconstruction of Gaza even though Hamas uses some of the material Israel supplies to build tunnels and rockets.)
"Israel sees Hezbollah as the “most severe threat.” A proxy of Iran, it has assembled an arsenal of more than one hundred thousand missiles and rockets aimed at Israel—many of them precision-guided with the ability to hit strategic targets, including the equivalent of the Pentagon in Tel Aviv. Hamas, whose charter pledges to “raise the banner of Allah over every inch of Palestine” occupied by “warmongering Jews,” stands second among substates whose attacks must be deterred. It has fought three wars against Israel in the past decade. During the Second Intifada, Hamas perfected the suicide bomb and used it to kill hundreds of Israeli civilians. Today, the group has thousands of rockets and is burrowing tunnels into Israeli territory for future attacks. (Israel has discovered a number of tunnels in recent months, each buried one hundred feet underground.)"
How does the IDF meet threats posed by these groups? Not by direct attacks to degrade them; not by all-out war to destroy them. Instead, it attempts to deter them. As Yadlin explained,
“Vis-a-vis Hamas and Hezbollah, we haven’t destroyed their capabilities, but we were able to establish deterrence. And this is basically because we hit them hard, and because the terrorists became . . . half-state entities. . . . The terrorists have discovered that when they are responsible for their economy, for education, for the life of their people, suddenly they are not that daring to use terror all day.”
India has NOT been able to establish deterrence because most leadership of Kashmiri terrorism enjoys the hospitality of Pakistani state. Guided, protected and feted to realise their strategy of "Bleeding by 1000 cuts". We have not been able to physically hurt these entities also due to domestic politics in India. You kill a family member of these Jihad leaders, you deter. The day we hurt families of Generals in Rawalpindi, we put fear of God that any action against indian state or its citizens will have severe personal ramifications for perpetrators
Of course, deterrence is not the only strand in Israel’s strategy to counter its enemies. Full-spectrum prevention of terrorist attacks includes detection (deep penetration to identify threats), defense (such as the Iron Dome missile-defense system and secure walls or fences on all borders) and decisive defeat (when, despite best efforts, attackers succeed). While many states, including the United States, invest heavily in similar efforts, Israel is unique in its placing deterrence at the core of its counterterrorism strategy.
Pulibius Syrus to propagandists saying we can’t afford war: Necessity knows no law except to conquer.
The IDF accepts the fact that this strategy sometimes fails. When it does, Israeli citizens die. But Israel’s national-security community still considers deterrence better than any feasible alternative for meeting threats posed by its substate adversaries. And after each conflict, the IDF has redoubled efforts to establish a new level of deterrence.
I see more educated a person become, less is his proclivity to see violence as a means to an end thus leaving out one very important traits of specie's survival on this planet. I have more faith in that semi-literate (so called) who stands up to fight for his land, home & hearth.
"Sūrā so pahicẖānī▫ai jo larai ḏīn ke heṯ,
Purjā purjā kat marai kabhū na cẖẖādai kẖeṯ."
He alone is known as a spiritual hero, who fights in defense of religion.He may be cut apart, piece by piece, but he never leaves the field of battle.
"Chose pen over violence.. Make a career...Terrorists are cowards...they are crazy.." all these are euphemism for self cowardice. Directed violence has a purpose, terrorise, in this case, population into accepting your political, religious views. We need ruthlessness but with a scalpel, not sledge hammer. Need to find long term solution.
"The society that separates its scholars from its warriors will have its thinking done by cowards and its fighting by fools."
*All quotes and commentary on IDF from a blog I read on http://nationalinterest.org/feature/why-isis-fears-israel-17286?page=2
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